Myth Buster
“Irad Ortiz (or enter jockey’s name) is always unstoppable at Saratoga!!”
Data Speaks Louder than Words
If you spend more than 2 minutes listening to a racing broadcast or even your betting buddy, you’ll hear “Dude, ‘Jockey X’ has a hot hand – you have to include ‘Jockey X’ in your Pick3.” We know many expert handicappers that see one of the Ortiz brothers on a horse – even a horse they don’t like - will include that horse in an exotic wager.
The casual bettor bets on jockeys – the experts, right?!?! But, at the same time – it feels unsafe to bet against Irad.
The question becomes – as handicappers - are we doing ourselves a disservice by betting jockeys? Or, being foolishly wary of betting against a big-name jockey?
Here is a data look at the major jockeys at Saratoga and how they have performed over the years.
The Data Set
- 10 years of data from Saratoga (2012-2021)
- All races
- Excluding races with dead heats, entries and DQs
The Analysis & Results
First, lets see who has taken the most mounts over the years at Saratoga. (Top 9 below)
Not including the current 2022 meet, Irad leads all jockeys in mounts with close to 2,500 (~250 mounts a meet). You also see his brother Jose come onto the scene (possibly) taking mounts away from Hall of Famers, Castellano and Johnny V at Saratoga?
There is a myriad of ways to analyze jockey performance. Here, we will focus on trends of WinRate and ROI. Starting with WinRate…
WinRate
Observation #1: There is a decent amount of ‘noise’ in the WinRates from year to year
Observation #2: Luis Saez only recently has hit the elite status at Saratoga
Observation #3: There is a clear delineation in WinRate between the Elite and others (Franco, Lezcano, Alvarado)
ROI
Although WinRate is interesting, lets take a look at ROI for Irad and ponder the thought – has he earned or lost rides on short odds horses due to performance….lets roll the tape.
Irad earned getting ‘good mounts’ by riding non-favorites to wins.
The IRAD Example:
2012-2015
- 926 mounts; 141 Winners à 15.2% WR
- Average odds of winners were 5.8:1
- ROI on betting IRAD to win was +3.7%
2016-2021
- 1,568 mounts; 302 Winners à 19.3% WR
- Average odds of winners were 3:1
- ROI on betting IRAD to win was -22.0%
The proverbial horse has left the barn, the word is out…. and Irad is overly bet.
Myth Busted? (YES – if you want to win money / No – if you want to win races)
Well known jockeys get bet down and result in severe negative ROIs.
If you catch on to the next Irad you may have an advantage – but don’t follow the crowd on the Elite jockeys.
“So, BTSM, who is the next Irad?”
Ah, thanks for asking….
Tyler Gaffalione:
In 2021, Tyler had over 200 mounts for the first time in Saratoga, his performance:
- 202 mounts; 30 Winners à 14.9% WR (’12-’15 Irad 15.2% WR)
- Average odds of winners were 5.9:1 (’12-’15 Irad 5.8:1)
- ROI on betting Tyler to win was +2.8% (’12-’15 Irad +3.7%)
Tyler could be the next Irad.
Feel free to ping us with your doubts and questions or the next myth to bust
Be The Smart Money
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